[ad_1]
Analysis: In international relations, as in much of politics, appearance is everything. That’s why Prime Minister Christopher Luxon (who’d previously promised to save taxpayer money by taking commercial flights) became so determined to fly to Australia in his own Royal NZ Air Force jet.
And why it was, in his words, “incredibly embarrassing” to find one of the Air Force Boeing 757s was out for routine maintenance this week, and the other had broken down. This comes just days after Newsroom reported the NZ Defence Force may have to ask Australia for support from its C-17 air transport to deploy in a natural disaster or any other emergency this summer.
The Defence Force has lost one in three of its trained personnel since April 2021 but, somewhere, it found some mechanics and sparkies to work through the night and get one of the 757s running again. And so, with a dirty puff of jet exhaust, it clambered into the sky this morning, bound for Sydney.
The meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is Luxon’s first overseas engagement since taking office. “Our two economies are deeply interlinked, and we need greater focus on improving the business environment on both sides of the Tasman,” he says.
Luxon has promised he and his ministers will “hustle” overseas from day one in office. Defence Minister Judith Collins visited Noumea for the South Pacific Defence Ministers meeting; Climate Minister Simon Watts gave NZ’s statement to the COP28 summit in Dubai; Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters met Pacific leaders in Suva; Trade Minister Todd McClay is in Delhi.
But as much as Chris the Hustler might like to push NZ exports in Sydney, today’s focus must inevitably be on regional security. And for this Government, that is a matter about which it will feel distinctly insecure.
It’s not just the broken down 757, and the four Navy ships tied up because there aren’t enough sailors to crew them.
In recent years, NZ’s much-vaunted independent foreign policy became even more independent of the US, Australia and its traditional allies. Which meant, closer to China.
It was Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark who did the free trade deal with China. But it was former National prime minister Jim Bolger who first described New Zealand as part of Asia; it was National leaders John Key and Judith Collins who drew us ever closer to a flourishing, burgeoning Chinese economy.
More recently, though, it’s become difficult to separate China’s trading interests from its domestic human rights record, and from its bellicose and expansionist global ambitions. It is Luxon, today’s Prime Minister, who must find a new diplomatic line – that will inevitably be closer to that of the US and Australia.
Why is this inevitable? It’s a path on which New Zealand started as far back as 2010, with the visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, to sign the ‘Wellington Declaration’ putting the differences of the nuclear-free standoff behind us.
New Zealand is replacing its surveillance Orions with four US-made P8As, has joined US-led groupings such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, and has sent its prime ministers to successive Nato summits. Luxon, Albanese and Canada’s Justin Trudeau issued a joint statement on the Gaza war.
Democracy Project geopolitical analyst Geoffrey Miller says relations are rapidly deepening, accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Western concerns over China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific. Like its allies, New Zealand has been quick to impose sanctions on Russian interests.
The biggest questions remains over joining Pillar II of the Aukus defence pact. Labour had insisted it was a hypothetical, but its defence strategy papers laid the groundwork for increased military spending, a security-focused approach to the Pacific, and formal consideration of joining Aukus.
Peters and Collins have discussed it. “If NZ does join Aukus, it could spell the effective end of the country’s ‘independent foreign policy’,” Miller says.
That’s a bold assertion, but it’s certainly true that once New Zealand enters into the quid pro quo of such a defence pact, it becomes more difficult to step back, or even sideways. Helen Clark argues we are now veering towards signing up to an alliance that promotes nuclear submarine defence in the Pacific region.
Foreign Minister Winston Peters insists New Zealand will strengthen its defence engagement and capability in the region. “We know we will need to have greater presence and we will need to bolster sovereign capabilities.”
And as China tries to negotiate security deals with Pacific Island nations, New Zealand finds itself sorely lacking the military tools and relationships to respond. It has only a diplomatic response, not a security response.
Anzus is dead.
Today, though, may come the proclamation from Sydney: Long live Aukus.
The post When Luxo meets Albo appeared first on Newsroom.
[ad_2]
Source link
