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House Republicans have conclusively proven that they suck at math—and now the math has just gotten even worse for them.
On Wednesday, Democrat Tom Suozzi will be sworn in as the newest addition to the Democratic caucus, following his triumph in the special election to replace the extremely disgraced George Santos. Because Suozzi’s victory flipped New York’s 3rd District from red to blue, Democrats will now have 213 members in the House, while Republican ranks will remain frozen at 219.
That in turn means that House Speaker Mike Johnson’s comically slender margin for error will shrink even further, from a precarious three votes to a pitiful two. On any given roll call, should a trio of Republicans side with Democrats, that would spell instant death for the bill in question, since a 216-216 tie is the same as a loss.
We recently saw a preview of this very dynamic in action, when a tiny handful of renegades sank the GOP’s first attempt to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Now dissidents can cut off Johnson’s plans with just three defections.
This logic, of course, applies to any faction of Republicans who are unhappy with Johnson, whether they’re relative pragmatists, like those who opposed impeaching Mayorkas, or far-right lunatics, like the junta that deposed Johnson’s predecessor, Kevin McCarthy.
And with critical deadlines coming up to fund government operations and avoid a shutdown, any three Republicans with any grievance at all could make Johnson’s already hellish life even more so.
This state of affairs, by the way, will likely persist until mid-June, when special elections to fill three remaining vacancies will finally conclude. (One seat was held by a Democrat and two, including McCarthy’s, were held by Republicans, though none are likely to change hands.) But even then, the improvement for Johnson will be minimal at best, since he’d simply be back to the pre-Suozzi status quo of being able to manage no more than three defectors.
What makes this all the more remarkable is that when Nancy Pelosi had a comparably small majority in the prior Congress, she continually made magic happen—and never lost a single roll call vote. Her successor, Hakeem Jeffries, has likewise presided over an era of extraordinary Democratic unity.
As voters cast their ballots this fall to determine control of the House, this stark contrast—between extremist meshugas and grown-up governance—will do nothing to help Republicans argue that they should remain in charge.
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