Polls open in three by-elections as Labour eyes Boris Johnson’s old seat – live

Somerton and Frome. Conservative majority: 19,213

The Somerton and Frome byelection was sparked by the resignation of David Warburton, who quit after being accused of sexual harassment, which he denies, and admitting to taking cocaine.

The Liberal Democrats are tipped to win the Somerset seat, which has been a Conservative stronghold – returning a Tory MP every year since 2010.

The Tories held it from 1983 to 1997 and the Lib Dems from 1997 until 2015, when David Warburton won it back for the Conservatives.

Mr Warburton had a majority of 19,213 at the 2019 election and took nearly 56 per cent of the vote, with the Lib Dems second on just over 26 per cent and Labour third on 13 per cent.

The Lib Dems need a swing in the share of the vote of 14.9 percentage points to come first at the by-election: the equivalent of a net change of 15 in every 100 people switching sides since 2019.

If a general election were held tomorrow , EC estimates that the Conservatives would hold the seat with 34.1 per cent with Labour in second on 28.2 per cent and Lib Dems on 23.1 per cent.

Selby and Ainsty. Conservative majority: 20,137

Labour, which has held a double-digit poll lead over the Tories for months, is also tipped to win in the North Yorkshire constituency of Selby and Ainsty, which has also returned a Conservative MP at every election since the seat was created in 2010.

The byelection was triggered after Mr Adams, an ally of Mr Johnson, resigned after being denied a peerage.

But the MP, who previously said he would stand down at the next general election, insisted that his decision to quit had nothing to do with his elevation to the House of Lords being blocked.

Mr Adam, at the 2019 general election, secured 33,995 (60.3 per cent) of the votes, with Labour candidate Malik Rofidi coming second on 13,858 (24.6 per cent) and Lib Dem candidate Katharine Macy third on 4,842 (3.4 per cent)

If a general election were held tomorrow EC estimates that Labour would win the seat with 41.5 per cent of the vote, with the Conservatives in second 35.2 per cent and the Lib Dems third on 8 per cent.

A JL Partners poll also published earlier in July predicted Labour had a 16 point lead over the Conservatives with 41 per cent of the vote.

The survey predicted Conservative support has more than halved, dropping 31 per cent  to 29 per cent and the Lib Dems on 6 per cent.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Conservative majority: 7,210

Labour has high hopes of gaining Boris Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip on the outer edge of west London after the incumbent quit in protest at a Commons committee that found he misled MPs over the Partygate scandal.

The Conservative Party has won the seat at every election since it was created in 2010 and the former prime minister won more than half of the vote share in 2019, 2017 and 2015.

At the 2019 general election, Mr Johnson won 25,351 (52.6 per cent) votes, with Labour’s candidate Ali Milani coming in second with 18,141 (37.6 per cent) votes. Liberal Democrat candidate Joanne Humphreys came third on 3,026 (6.3 per cent).

According to Electoral Calculus, the political forecasting website, Labour would win Uxbridge and South Ruislip if a general election were held tomorrow.

Today’s by-elections are taking place in three very different parts of the country – in Greater London, North Yorkshire and Somerset.

Uxbridge and Ruislip is on the outer edge of the commuter belt in west London, while Selby and Ainsty is a largely rural seat.

Somerton and Frome in Somerset, meanwhile, is made up of town sand villages and has a mixed economy.

Here’s where each constituency is on the map:

MPs will later today prepare to head back to their constituencies for the summer recess, returning to Westminster in September.

Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, met with his backbench colleagues last night as he tried to rally the troops ahead of the break and today’s by-elections.

The prime minister told a meeting of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers on the eve of the polls that they face a “tough battle” in what were seen as safe seats for his party.

He told them that governing parties rarely win by-elections but urged the MPs to unite in the face of any defeat as he pledged to “throw everything” at winning the next general election.

Labour hopes to snatch Uxbridge and South Ruislip, which was Boris Johnson’s seat until he quit, and Selby and Ainsty – vacated by his ally Nigel Adams’ resignation.

The Liberal Democrats are eying victory in the contest in Somerton and Frome that was triggered by David Warburton quitting after admitting cocaine use amid allegations of sexual harassment.

Losses for the Tories in all of them would be the first time in 55 years that a government has been defeated in three by-elections on the same day.

Below: Steve Tuckwell (left), Tory Candidate for Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Danny Beales (right), Labour candidate