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Solar activity ramping up more quickly than previously expected, meaning more and sooner opportunities to see aurora borealis.
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Calgary and surrounding areas could be in for yet another northern lights display, as space weather becomes more active and solar activity peaks sooner than previously believed.
Experts are predicting a G3 geomagnetic storm over the next few days, which has the potential of bringing the auroral oval directly over the Calgary area — although due to light pollution, viewing may be better outside the city.
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These storms are caused by streams of plasma and magnetic fields from the sun, which create aurora when they interact with the upper levels of Earth’s atmosphere.
“Predicting the timing and intensity of these events can be difficult due to the high number of variables and low number of measurements, but we have fairly good confidence that an Earth-directed component to the fourth in a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) will arrive at Earth as early as tonight (Thursday),” said Bryan Brasher, project manager of the Space Weather Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
One recent display of northern lights seen in Calgary was brought on by a G3 geomagnetic storm. On two occasions before that, they were triggered by even larger G4 storms.
Similar to hurricanes, solar storms are evaluated on a five-point scale. G3 storms or stronger often push the visibility of northern lights south into areas such as Calgary, whereas G1 and G2 storms are often restricted to regions farther north.
Brasher added if the CME arrives later than anticipated, the G3 expectation still holds, but this means the aurora may be visible Friday night into early Saturday morning.
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“So, it’s worth monitoring and for aurora viewers to be ready for both nights just in case,” he said. “It’s also important to understand that CME arrival and progression can make for quite variable conditions as the storm progresses — varying between periods of less activity and periods of escalated activity. It’s just the nature of these events.”
During the current solar cycle, which usually spans 11 years, Brasher said there have only been a total of six G3s, two G4s and no G5s.
Whether people will be able to see the effects of active space weather in the form of aurora will also depend on the weather closer to home: As of Thursday afternoon, some clouds were in the forecast Thursday night, while a clear sky was expected Friday night, according to Environment Canada.
Approaching solar maximum leading to more displays
Just as weather goes through hurricane season, the sun also goes through periods of alternating high and low activity.
According to Brasher, as we approach solar maximum — a phase in the sun’s 11-year cycle characterized by heightened solar activity — there will be more opportunities to witness aurora in mid-latitude parts of the U.S. and more persistently across Canada.
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“Although predicting these events beyond a few days can be challenging, we can confidently say that with solar maximum approaching, more captivating displays of auroras are undoubtedly on their way,” he said.
The increased opportunities are set to span the next several years, with the highest likelihood occurring around the time of solar maximum.
“That being said, we had two large G4 storms earlier this year and solar storms can occur on both the ascending and descending slopes of the solar cycle i.e., before and after the solar maximum,” Brasher said.
While the solar maximum is often associated with increased solar activity, Brasher added it’s important to note that significant solar storms can still happen during the declining phase of the cycle.
“Historically, for example, some notable solar storms, such as the ones in 1989 and 2003, did occur during the declining phase of the solar cycle.”
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Storms can cause issues to the power grid, but less likely in Alberta: AESO
G4 storms can wreak havoc on technology, causing widespread voltage control problems, radio blackouts and more frequent issues for GPS satellites.
While trouble for electrical utilities is possible during such storms, a spokesperson from the Alberta Electric System Operator said it is less of an issue here in Alberta, although they are monitored as there is a small chance solar storms can impact the grid.
“We are less susceptible here in Alberta than in central Canada. In Quebec or Ontario, there is a higher chance of problems due to induced ground current on transformers, because they sit on the Canadian Shield.”
People can expect to see more displays in the next few years: Canadian Space Agency
William Archer, program lead with the Sun-Earth System Sciences at the Canadian Space Agency, said we’re currently coming out of a low activity period in the solar cycle.
He added that while there was initially thought to be a peak in 2026, things have been moving along quicker than anticipated when it comes to this particular cycle.
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“Things have been increasing faster than we expected them to, so the prediction is things may peak sooner than originally forecasted,” Archer said.
He also said the Alberta Aurora Chasers Facebook group is effectively the largest amateur aurora chasing group in the world, making it a great resource for people in and around the Calgary area.
“What you are going to have there is people telling you when it’s going to be active, where they can see it, where you can drive right now,” he said. “It’s also a really great group of people to give tips on how to photograph the aurora. That is a fun resource to have at your disposal.”
Archer said the best time for aurora viewing is usually midnight. adding Dec. 1 in western Canada “could be spectacular” for those looking to take in an auroral display.
With files from Postmedia
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