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Despite an embarrassing 31-30 loss to Jacksonville in the playoffs last season, expectations are high in Los Angeles as the Chargers look to break out and become one of the best teams in the AFC.
With the conclusion of training camp and preseason, here’s the Chargers’ ceiling and floor heading into Week 1.
Ceiling: 12-5
New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore should have a massive impact. The Cowboys finished third in points scored last season while he served as OC. Los Angeles’ offensive talent level is comparable to Dallas’ with elite playmakers such as running back Austin Ekeler, quarterback Justin Herbert and wide receiver Keenan Allen. So, the unit should improve after it finished 13th in points scored in 2022.
Herbert is about to become a bona fide MVP candidate after he threw for the league’s second-most passing yards (4,739 in 17 games) last season. Per OddsChecker, he’s tied for the fourth-best (+1200) chance to win the award. He will be more productive under Moore, who’s emphasizing the vertical passing game.
If linebacker Joey Bosa stays healthy, he and Khalil Mack will form an elite pass-rushing tandem, key in the AFC West where Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes awaits twice a year. The Chargers have all the pieces to vie for a high playoff seed this season.
Floor: 8-9
Even though Brandon Staley is a defensive-minded head coach, the unit tied for 23rd in points allowed and 20th in yards allowed last season. The Chargers signed former Pro Bowler LB Eric Kendricks, but he’s not a significant upgrade for a defense that could struggle again.
Another concern is the ability to win divisional games. Since 2021, the team has a 5-7 record against AFC West opponents. The division isn’t getting easier, as Kansas City has won two Super Bowls over the past four seasons, and Denver should improve under new head coach Sean Payton.
The Chargers schedule is challenging, too (complete schedule analysis here). Per NFL research, it’s tied for the 12th most difficult in the league, and they face six teams that made the playoffs last season. Five opponents won 12 games or more.
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