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Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo and GOP Rep. Richard McCormick of Georgia were baffled Thursday over a Cook Political Report survey that shows Vice President Kamala Harris tied with Donald Trump in Georgia.
“I’m surprised that the two are tied and so close across the country, including in Georgia,” Bartiromo said.
McCormick echoed her confusion. “I’m not really sure where these statistics are coming from, where these polling numbers are coming from, but it’s very surprising to me, too.”
Here’s where those numbers are coming from:
This really is an astounding turn around, as CNN data analyst Harry Enten explains. Disaffected voters, the so-called “double-haters” who didn’t want to vote for either President Joe Biden or Donald Trump are finding a home.
“Now that Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee, look at her support among them. Look at this, 53% say Kamala Harris, look at that jump, that’s a jump of 25 points. Donald Trump has gone in the other direction down to 11 points,” Enten said.
”And now we’re looking at, what is that, John? That is a 42-point advantage among the folks who dislike Joe Biden and Donald Trump for Kamala Harris compared to just that nine-point advantage that Joe Biden had back in June. This, of course, is a substantial portion of the electorate.
Before Kamala Harris got in, this was going to be the group that was going to determine one way or another, and it may still be, and if it is, Kamala Harris has this massive advantage over this very key bloc in the election.”
Enten also notes that Harris has picked up 39% of people who said they were going to vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in July in a Pew Research poll. Trump has gotten half of that, just 20% of those voters.
But for veteran pollsters, these changes are not that surprising, even as private polling shows “anxiety-spiking” numbers for Trump in Ohio and Florida, reports Rolling Stone.
“When you address things that voters don’t care about [such as obsessing over Harris’ crowd sizes], they punish you—and Trump’s being punished right now for not staying on message and not addressing issues people care about,” says Frank Luntz, a longtime pollster and conservative Trump critic. “This election was his to lose, and he’s losing it … And he’s incapable of changing.”
So there’s your answer, Republicans. But you keep on denying that these numbers are real, and carry on with what you’re doing. See you in November.
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