2:00PM Water Cooler 9/17/2024 | naked capitalism

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In Case You Might Miss…

Boeing strike news (thickheaded management digs deeper).
Trump assassination roundup, now with stochastic terrorism.
The new kitten.

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Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Assassination Attempts (Plural)

Not wrong:

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“The Assassination Wish Fulfillment” [John Poderhoretz, Commentary]. I never thought I’d find myself quoting J-Pod with approval, but here we are. “On Tuesday, Morning Joe’s Mika Brzezinski introduced a report on the attempt by Garrett Haake, and then when the camera returned to her face, launched into a two-minute history (read off a teleprompter, so therefore pre-planned by the show’s producer and theoretically approved in some fashion by MSNBC’s senior management) of all the times Trump has encouraged violence. She stitched together the genuinely disturbing (January 6 is “gonna be wild,” went the Trump tweet) with the jokey (Trump’s line about how he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and get away with it) and the transparently dishonest (that he supported the neo-Nazis in Charlottesville in 2017). The net result was a five-minute segment that, once again, was designed to make you think Trump was asking for it…. Let’s talk tachlis, as we say in Hebrew. Let’s talk straight. The reason so many people in this country seem determined not to consider the profound seriousness of a potential new age of assassination—a return to the destabilizing period that tormented this country and the West between JFK in 1963 and the Reagan/John Paul II attempts in 1981—is that it represents a dark wish fulfillment for so many people…. A great many people, and most of the nation’s elites, secretly or not so secretly wish they could see the result sought by would-be killers Routh and Cheeks. And while they know they must pay lip service to the fact that assassinations are bad and wrong and shocking and all that, they simply cannot muster up the emotion of horror. That’s what’s missing here from the coverage and discussions of these two attempts: Horror. Because they’re not horrified. And they should be. This is the darkest kind of fantasy, because it can be fulfilled—and the consequences would be unthinkably dangerous for the future of this country.” • Speaking of wish-fulfillment:

Maybe Trump should stop messing with the Haitians

Just saying 🤷🏼‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/hs6xqbFix5

— Santa Claus 🎅🏻☃️🎄🦌🛷 (@Old_Santa_Claus) September 16, 2024

The stitched blue X’s for the (dead) eyes are an especially cute touch, aren’t they? Who’s selling this kitsch? Penzeys?

“Democrats’ Rhetoric Inspired Another Attempt On President Trump’s Life” [Donald J. Trump]. Issued by the campaign, but this is the version I found. “Yesterday, President Donald J. Trump was the target of a second assassination attempt in as many months. Thankfully, the would-be assassin was stopped by the heroic action of law enforcement — but make no mistake, this psycho was egged on by the rhetoric and lies [stochatic terrorism] that have flowed from Kamala Harris, Democrats, and their Fake News allies for years. Democrats used increasingly incendiary rhetoric against President Trump in the days, weeks, and months leading up to the two assassination attempts.” • A long list of receipts, with links. The Democrats, having developed and propagated the theory of stochastic terrorism (see yesterday’s post) now don’t get to claim that “the use of mass communications to stir up random lone wolves” doesn’t apply to their rhetoric. Oddly, there are no Trump-as-Hitler refererences in the receipts; presumably because the campaign didn’t want to reinforce it. This matters, at least to the moralist, because while preserving “our democracy” might be a casus belli, it is typically not used as an excuse for assassination (Sic semper tyrannis being the counter-example). However, there’s a whole discourse built up around the question of whether killing Hitler would have been justified or not, and many say that it would have been.

“After possible assassination attempt, Trump decries ‘rhetoric’? Spare me the sanctimony.” [Rex Hupke, USA Today]. The deck: “The idea that Harris or her campaign should stop talking about the threat Trump poses to our democracy is absurd. Democrats are not encouraging any form of violence against him or anyone else.” “• The difficulty here is that (as I show here) not only hated Trump, wrote that “you are free to assassinate Trump,” and quoted the “our democracy” talking point. So when Hupke writes: “There is zero evidence connecting either gunman to Democrats calling Trump ‘a threat to democracy’” he’s not telling the truth.

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“Why Did Journalists Like Me Take Ryan Routh Seriously?” [The Free Press]. Worth reading in full; kudos for the mea culpa, rare in the press: “In March 2023 I interviewed a strange man named Ryan Routh. We had been introduced by a source inside Ukraine’s foreign legion, a military unit composed of foreign volunteers from more than fifty countries all over the world…. He seemed genuinely passionate, if perhaps a little too eager to aid a foreign war halfway around the world. After my story published, I never thought about him again. Until yesterday, that is, when the name Ryan Routh exploded across my phone—and yours…. The guy moves to the capital of a nation at war, despite having no personal connection to it. He doesn’t speak Russian or Ukrainian. In retrospect, shouldn’t it have struck the reporters, including myself, as a little bit. . . odd? The question is: Why didn’t it? Well, for one, I thought he was doing good work: It was clear he cared deeply about Ukraine’s struggle. I am Russian—born and raised in Moscow—but I consider the Russian war against Ukraine an unjustified act of aggression. So did Ryan Routh….. The story of Ryan Routh is a cautionary tale. Our increasing willingness to tolerate madness in the service of the causes with which we might agree risks obscuring the simple fact that the ‘right’ kind of crazy is still exactly that: crazy.” • Larry Summers, for example, is “the right kind of crazy.”

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“DeSantis says federal authorities investigating thwarted Trump attack ‘may not be the best thing’” [Washington Examiner]. In links today, but adding this comment: “‘We also believe that there is a need to make sure that the truth about all this comes out in a way that’s credible,’ DeSantis said at a Monday press conference. ‘I look at the federal government, with all due respect to them, those same agencies that are prosecuting Trump in that jurisdiction are now going to be investigating this? I just think that that may not be the best thing for this country.’” • Much as I loathe DeSantis, he’s right (though also capable of messing up the Florida investigation, especially because Florida law enforcement is also involved; we’ll have to see). It makes no sense to hand the case over to the lawfare goons.

“US Secret Service can’t guarantee Trump and Harris safety from more gunmen, sources warn” [iNews]. • There are no guarantees in this life. But holy moley, Biden and Harriss are supposedly running the administration. And the organs of state security get whatever they ask for. And operationally, what they have said is that when a sitting President plays golf, the golf course gets surrounded. We can’t do that for a former President who’s already been shot at once? It’s ridiculous. (Recall also that Biden refused RFK protection, despite his family history.)

2024

Less than sixty days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

A few polls post-debate, but as of this reading little change. To be fair, it might take some time for sentiment to settle; and the winning margins may at this point be so minute as to be undetectable. Still, the Democrats must be very puzzled to have virtual unanimity across the political spectrum that “Harris is the one” — it was a tidal wave, after the debate — and yet the election is a virtual tie. How can this be? Perhaps a few more Republicans, generals, or celebrities will turn the tide.

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Trump (R): “Will two assassination attempts alter the election?” [The Hill]. “The New York Times: ‘The shock from the shooting in Butler [Pa.] wore off relatively quickly as attention turned to other developments. The shock from this one may not last any longer.’” • “Shock” is a media thing. What matters is turnout, especially in Pennsylvania (the site of the first shooting).

Trump (R): “The Memo: Attempt on Trump’s life reverberates in White House race” [The Hill]. “The second attempt on Trump’s life within roughly nine weeks will surely rev up his base, further heightening the passions of supporters who are already prone to believe that the 45th president is a target of larger, nefarious forces. It’s possible the apparent attempt on Trump’s life could also win over whatever thin sliver of the electorate still populates the center ground — a factor that could be important in a presidential race against Vice President Harris that is essentially deadlocked. The startling chain of events could perhaps solidify some of Trump’s softer supporters — those Republican-minded or socially conservative voters who are hesitant to back the former president because of his belligerent rhetoric and penchant for personal invective.” • Yes, let’s be serious. Is Trump offering anybody ice cream? I rest my case.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Lambert here: First time in a long time I’ve seen national trends downward for both positivity and hospitalization. Even if wastewater still looks pretty ugly, that’s very good news. I assume that what’s going on is the end of the Summer Vacation cycle of infection, and there will be a short lull until the beginning of the Back to School cycle. If not, that will be a very good sign.

Wastewater

This week[1] CDC September 9

Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants ★ [3] CDC September 14

Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 7

Hospitalization

★ New York[5] New York State, data September 16:

National [6] CDC August 24:

Positivity

National[7] Walgreens September 16:

Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 7:

Travelers Data

Positivity[9] CDC August 26:
Variants[10] CDC August 26:

Deaths

Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 7:

Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 9:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading. NOTE The date seems to be wrong, but the number of sites has changed so this is new.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Definitely down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop continues!

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Industrial Production: “United States Industrial Production” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial production in the United States stalled in August of 2024 compared to the same month last year, following a downwardly revised 0.7% decline in July.”

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Manufacturing: “Boeing, union negotiators to meet as striking workers dig in” [Reuters]. “The top negotiators at Boeing and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) will meet with federal mediators in Seattle on Tuesday for preliminary talks, a person familiar with the process said. Boeing and union negotiators are not expected to discuss details of a new offer at the meeting, which is more about setting out the rules of future talks… Union members manning picket lines outside Boeing factories in Seattle expressed little sympathy for the company’s financial plight, with many saying they were anticipating a protracted negotiating period and a weeks-long strike. ‘It makes me a little happy to see that they’re showing the first signs of struggling because I don’t think they care about their workers at all,’ said Martin Klyavkov, 20, who works building wings for the 737 MAX. ‘Boeing is going to get desperate one of these days and cave.’… Equity research firm Melius Research found median employee compensation for the aerospace and defense firms it monitors grew 12% between 2018 and 2023, while at Boeing it fell 6%. ‘I think it’ll be a while before they get an agreement,’ said Bill George, former Medtronic CEO and executive fellow at Harvard Business School. ‘The compensation may rise to the point where it’s not competitive for Boeing but that might be the lesser of a couple of evils in terms of a long strike.’” • Maybe Biden can step in and do what he did to the railroad workers.

Manufacturing: “Boeing Lays Off ‘Vital’ Contractors in Sweeping Cost Cuts” [Airline Geeks]. “The manufacturer reportedly removed ‘dozens’ of engineering contractor positions with only a day’s notice. These contractors are largely retired employees who were brought back to help fix ongoing manufacturing issues with the Boeing 777X, 787 Dreamliner, and 737 MAX. Speaking to The Seattle Times, one engineer described the contractors as ‘vital,’ calling the move ‘just another very bad decision in a continuing long line of bad decisions.’” • You come out of retirement to help Boeing, so they lay you off?

Manufacturing: “Boeing’s CFO wants to cut costs but it could be a risky maneuver” [Fortune]. The URL is more pointed: “boeing-cfo-cut-costs-amid-strike-observer-warns-death-spiral/” More: “As CFO, West wrote in a letter to employees on Monday that these actions “will create some uncertainty and concern…. Actions such as hiring freezes and furloughs are immediate cash-saving measures that will impact the bottom line, Jason Walker, founder of Thrive HR Consulting, told me. This is a pretty standard approach when you are worried about the amount of cash you are going to have on hand, he said…. [However, when] when you make this kind of decision, especially if you are Boeing, it only adds to the cultural woes of the company, Walker said. ‘Employees already have a dim view of management, and this is just going to make it worse; I think they are really in a death spiral of their own making,’ he said…. He added: ‘From whistleblower lawsuits, the new CEO buying a $4.1 million house, quality issues, and now this—the bad optics just keep going.’ Being laser-focused on the financial aspects of the company is a finance chief’s job, Walker said. However, at times, some CFOs may have “complete disregard for the people side of the business,” and employees usually figure that out quickly, he said.” • Sort of amazing the news comes from the CFO (West) and not the CEO (Ortberg). Seems to communicate who’s really in charge….

Manufacturing: “Boeing Has Too Much Debt. Here’s How Much Stock It Might Have to Issue” [Barron’s]. “Debt to Ebitda is a common measure of balance sheet strength. The average debt to Ebitda earned over the past 12 months for industrial companies in the S&P 500, excluding Boeing, is about 1.5 times…. There are about 270 investment-grade-rated non-financial companies in the S&P 500. Their average net debt to Ebitda is about 1.2 times. Almost all have generated positive Ebitda over the past 12 months and about 240 have generated positive free cash flow…. Boeing’s Ebitda generated over the past 12 months is close to zero…. [W]ith Boeing today. Free cash flow is negative because of low production. Boeing is expected to deliver some 475 planes in 2024, down from a pre-pandemic peak of more than 800 in 2018. Wall Street doesn’t project deliveries to hit 2018 levels until 2027.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing strike emotions flare as security guard flashes gun in picket line altercation” [CBS]. “An ongoing strike by 33,000 Boeing machinists took a potentially dangerous turn as a security guard displayed a gun following an altercation with workers walking a picket line on Monday outside the airplane manufacturer’s main hub in Seattle…. Boeing called the incident ‘unacceptable’ and said that the contract security guard involved would not be returning to the company.” • But the unnamed security firm will still keep the contract?

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 54 Neutral (previous close: 50 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 38 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 13 at 1:58:23 PM ET.

Gallery

Hockney (1):

Genuinely impressed by how bad the new window in Westminster Abbey is pic.twitter.com/7PH1DveueB

— alex zawacki (@AChillGhost) September 16, 2024

Hockney (2):

Afternoon sunlight streams into the Abbey through The Queen’s Window, designed by David Hockney and installed in 2018 to celebrate the reign of HM Queen Elizabeth II. It depicts a vividly coloured country scene reflecting The Queen’s deep affection and connection to the… pic.twitter.com/3nL236Cwcl

— Westminster Abbey (@wabbey) August 7, 2024

Hockney (3):

Lawn sprinkled https://t.co/RPREet0ghR pic.twitter.com/NCQcQqFkrZ

— David Hockney (@ArtistHockney) September 17, 2024

I think the Medium matters….

Zeitgeist Watch

I guess Lawson won’t be getting any repeat business from Routh:

NOTE: YouTube now makes you log in to watch the more popular version of this clip (on which the comments are great).

News of the Wired

How it started:

A life long pet resistant human who had allergies now has a kitten in his home. Wish me well. pic.twitter.com/KLKsEYCZwi

— Wajahat Ali (@WajahatAli) September 8, 2024

How it’s going:

The kitten likes drinking water from my water mug. I’m assuming there is nothing I can do to stop this, yes? I’ve resorted to now bringing 2 water cups and placing a napkin over the one I want to use.

— Wajahat Ali (@WajahatAli) September 16, 2024

Bird Song of the Day

Gray Catbird, DD Rd, Rapid River US-MI, Delta, Michigan, United States.

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From EH:

EH writes: “Here is a picture from May 17, 2024 of Blue-eyed Grass, flourishing all along a new wetland wild flower path in Chestertown, Maryland, where we visit friends from time to time . There is also a wild North American Strawberry growing among it. These are relatively newly planted and are thriving. I tried several times to grow this miniscule wetland/ woodland member of the iris family in my yard in Brooklyn, NY, because I remembered it growing in abundance in the woods when I lived in North Carolina, but sadly, it didn’t like my conditions.” Have any readers had better luck?