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There were multiple reports on Thursday that Russia was massing forces near the city of Kreminna for a large push to the west. Considering recent evidence that Russia has extended a salient 15 kilometers west of Kreminna to capture the village of Torske, that threat might seem serious. But I failed to even work it into the update yesterday.
The reason it was left out was that those reports of Russia capturing Torske were an exaggeration. So were reports that Ukrainian troops had been forced to abandon that settlement. The best information available is that Russian forces moved north of a highway to Kreminna and reached a treeline east of Torske on about July 6. Ukrainian artillery then hit these positions. Russia fell back. They haven’t come beyond that point since.
Fighting continues in this area, with Russia making more assaults toward Torske and Ukrainian artillery hitting back from positions on the other side of the narrow Zherebets River. The area east of the river, including the center of Torske, is currently a “gray zone” as Russia continues to press. That’s not because Russia is there, but because Russia keeps making assaults.
However, this is hardly the “turn of the tide!” or “end of the counteroffensive!” that Russian sources are reporting in ecstasy. It’s just one of several areas this week where Russia has made big claims in an effort to change public perception of what’s happening in Ukraine.
The potential for a Russian push out of Kreminna certainly does require attention, especially since it follows claims that Russia moved as many as 120,000 troops into the northern lines in an effort to recapture Kupyansk, Lyman, and positions along the Oskil River. Right now, Russian sources are continuing to make unsupported claims that their troops have moved past Torske and are advancing toward Lyman. There is no evidence to support these claims.
What’s happening along the northern front between Kreminna and Kupyansk doesn’t seem to, so far at least, be affecting Ukraine’s efforts to push into Russian-controlled territory around Bakhmut or on the southern front between Donetsk and Vasylivka. However, as Ukraine maintains a careful silence as part of operational security, Russian sources are increasingly taking the lead when it comes to the news of the war available on Telegram, Twitter, YouTube, and other social media sources. Russia is setting the tone, and that tone is depressing.
In the past week, Russia has claimed that Ukrainian troops abandoned the town of P’yatykhatky after “an entire platoon” of Ukrainian soldiers there was “massacred” by Russian artillery. In support of this, Russian sources released videos that, on careful analysis, show a handful of Ukrainian troops being killed as they took positions in a boobytrapped trench about 1 kilometer southwest of P’yatykhatky near the Russian-occupied village of Zherebyanky. But by showing the video of a single vehicle and four bodies from multiple angles and mixing in video of artillery strikes from drone footage taken a week earlier, Russian propagandists have made it seem that Ukrainian losses were much greater. Searching Twitter for P’yatykhatky at this moment will bring up dozens of Russian claims about the utter destruction of Ukrainian forces at this location before turning up even one indication that things are not quite as Russia is claiming.
Something very similar happened in the town of Berkhivka on Thursday. Russian sources made repeated claims that Ukraine had been forced out of the town, that Russia was advancing to the south, and that Ukraine’s whole counteroffensive at Bakhmut had been “halted” as Russia, you guessed it, “turned the tide” and went back on the offensive.
There was no evidence then, and there’s still no evidence now, that this was true. Unusually at this point in the war, there is actual Ukrainian video from the area showing that Russian forces attempted to reenter Berkhivka by attacking from a forested area on the northwest. The attack failed. So did at least one other attack through the same area.
I don’t want to diminish the issues here or come across as a cheerleader who only reports positive developments. The situation west of Kreminna is definitely not good and could become serious if Russia is able to push more troops through the still-developing salient. Fighting between P’yatykhatky and Zherebyanky, like fighting at most locations on the southern front, has gone on for far too long and there have been some severe costs on the Ukrainian side. And while Berkhivka may now be under Ukrainian control, Russia’s ability to counterattack in the area shows that Ukraine has not secured vital positions on high ground to the west.
However, at the moment, Ukraine is still advancing in the South, picking up another reported 1.7 km in areas south of Velyka Novosilka over the past two days. It’s still advancing at Bakhmut, liberating both Berkhivka and a large part of Klishchiivka. Ukraine is advancing in other areas, including further south of Bakhmut at Kurdyumivka.
There is no question that Ukraine remains on the offensive as Russia sacrifices both men and equipment in an effort to cling to the territory it has illegally occupied. However, in this season of lies, it may not seem this way.
For example, here’s Russia reporting the destruction of a Ukrainian tank along the southern front..
But that tank isn’t being hit by artillery, or even running into a mine. The tank is purposely exploding mines using a device to clear minefields. The tank is fine. Russia knew it was fine. They just took advantage of a blurry, distant video to make it seem that Ukraine had lost a tank. The tank carried on within seconds of this explosion, passing through the minefield and leaving behind a safe path for others to follow.
When it comes to news from Ukraine, if it seems too good to be true, or too bad to be true, double-check the sources. Because right now, most of what’s making it onto social media originates from Moscow troll farms.
Bakhmut
In the Berkhivka area, most of the action now seems to be confined to the wooded region northwest of the town. Ukrainian forces reportedly have a goal of proceeding toward Krasna Hora, which would place Ukraine back in control of that critical set of highway junctions just half a kilometer from Berkhivka. Control of this area was important to Russia in capturing Bakhmut. It will be important to Ukraine in liberating Bakhmut.
At the location marked southwest of Yahidne, Ukrainian artillery took out multiple Russian vehicles that were attempting to advance. However, that Russia was still driving in this area shows that it’s not fully under Ukrainian control.
While artillery fire from the west seems to be substantially diminished, for now it appears that Russia still controls the high ground near Dubovo-Vasylivka. There were confusing reports on Thursday indicating that Ukraine had liberated “all high ground” near Bakhmut, but there’s no evidence that Ukraine has retaken this area northwest of the Berkhivka reservoir.
Heavy fighting was reported to the northwest around Zaliznyanske back on July 10, but there have been no updates from this area since then.
At Klishchiivka, Ukraine has secured the critical heights west of the town, sent troops down into the town from the northern hill, and moved through a valley between the two hills to occupy portions of the town. There were reports on Thursday that Russian troops were attempting to continue holding houses in the southern portion of Klishchiivka, forcing Ukraine to go door to door in an effort to clear them out. There are also several small trench networks near the town, which may be why there are reports this morning claiming that Ukraine has begun using U.S. cluster munitions in the area (Note: this is likely false. Each time a new weapon gets announced, Russian forces in some area of Ukraine report that it is being used against them, even if that weapon is months from reaching the battlefield.)
Reports are split over whether Ukrainian forces mean to move east to Opytne, south to Avdriivka, or north toward Bakhmut. More than one answer may be correct.
The most important location in this area is not Klishchiivka village, but this area of heights northwest of Klishchiivka proper. The area within the blue ring represents a hilltop that includes a trench network, fortifications, and prepared positions from artillery. It’s this position that now allows Ukrainian artillery to ange across most of the area south of Bakhmut.
Russia is claiming that additional special forces have reinforced positions near the canal south of Klishchiivka. But there seems to have been no change in positions in this area.
Southern front
Over the past two days, Ukrainian forces have picked their way across a small river and between a string of reservoirs to attack Pryyutne from the north. There was intense fighting north of the village, in which Ukraine apparently lost several vehicles. However, there are unconfirmed reports in the past few hours that Ukraine has liberated Pryyutne.
More fighting continues to the east near Staromaiorske, where Russian forces were reportedly being driven slowly south. There are also reports that Ukraine is approaching Urozhaine from the east, but these are unconfirmed for the moment.
Meanwhile, Russian sources are reporting that Ukraine has placed a large number of troops in the area of Levadne and they are either moving toward Stepove or have already liberated it. This is also unconfirmed.
It’s an unconfirmed trifecta. Stay tuned for updates.
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