Links 6/27/2023 | naked capitalism

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“Get Down!” What to Do When a Bear Climbs Into Your Tree Stand Field & Stream

She paid $18,500 for a WA service dog but became the dog’s ‘emotional support human’ instead Seattle Times

Assessing recession probabilities The FRED Blog

Quality of new vehicles in US declining on more tech use, study shows Reuters

Pedestrian deaths reach 40-year high Axios

Climate

A first-of-its-kind climate trial just ended — will it work? The Verge. Held v. Montana.

#COVID19

Young people are more likely to die of heart attacks post-COVID, study finds. But why? Today. ‘Tis a mystery!

A Big Leaguer Lost His Fastball but Not His Will to Compete NYT. Note lack of agency in “lost.” Due to Covid, naturally.

China?

China calls West’s economic de-risking a ‘false proposition’ Channel News Asia

Local Chinese Governments Add Billions to Multitrillion-Dollar Hidden-Debt Problem Caixin Global. Commentary:

4/4Ultimately they will have to liquidate assets to fund all of this, but until then they will borrow, explicitly when permitted and in hidden form when not, and will try to raise revenues, even if this undermines longer-term growth by penalizing local businesses and households.

— Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) June 27, 2023

Chinese luxury goods: the bear case FT

Cattle, farmland short of water in northern China: Report Channel News Asia

Why a joke about the PLA has got China’s stand-up comics worried South China Morning Post

The South Korean ‘master’ of chips accused of sharing secrets with China FT

So Many Questions, So Little Time for Pacific Logistics RAND

Myanmar

Military-Aligned Border Guard Forces Defect in Southeastern Myanmar The Diplomat

COVID wave looms in Japan after case numbers nearly double in a month Japan Times. So how are those smiling lessons workin’ out for ya?

India

Cow Vigilantes in Nashik Kill One, Injure Another on Beef Transportation Suspicions The Wire

European Disunion

Germany: Far-right AfD wins first governing post Deutsche Welle

Germany Is Dragging Down Europe’s Economy WSJ

The role of supply and demand in the post-pandemic recovery in the euro area European Central Bank

Dear Old Blighty

NHS trailing behind other major nations on life expectancy, study finds Sky News. Obviously, we need to bring in some American consulting firms and privatize everything.

Gibraltar: Britain’s Militarised Rock After Brexit Declassified UK

New Not-So-Cold War

Ukraine making ‘steady tactical progress’ in war: British defense chief Anadolu Agency. Modified rapture….

Nuclear Falseflag on Zaporozhye NPP Heats Up + Major Wagner Updates and More SImplicius the Thinker

Russia-Ukraine war live news: Wagner to hand weapons to Moscow Al Jazeera

Prigozhin’s plane arrives in Belarus Ukrainska Pravda. Commentary:

To show there are no hard feels, have asked Lukashenka to give Prigozhin an office with a view and a large window.

— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) June 25, 2023

Prigozhin’s Farce Is Over And It Is Clear Who Has Won Moon of Alabama

Inner workings of Wagner mercenary group revealed amid call to add organization to US terror list FOX. Timely report from the Soufan Center (“Founded in 2017 by former FBI special agent Ali Soufan….”)

* * *

The Beginning of the End for Putin? Foreign Affairs

Putin’s weakness has been revealed. Here’s how Russia’s neighbors are reacting. Atlantic Council. One such neighbor:

10 minutes of Lukashenko mauling the BBC pic.twitter.com/6bILzQlsRR

— COMBATE |🇵🇷 (@upholdreality) June 26, 2023

In any case, perhaps not:

1. Consolidation of power. Most of the Russian political class vocally lined up in support of Putin during the incident. Those who did not have doubtless been noted and can expect unusual but plausibly-deniable deaths in the near to medium term.

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) June 25, 2023

Not sure about “plausibly-deniable deaths” in the general case, even in the political class. Oligarchs, especially foreign oligarchs, would be another matter.

Russo-Ukrainian War: The Wagner Uprising Big Serge Thought

White House says ‘too soon to know’ impact of Wagner revolt in Russia Anadolu Agency. Channeling Chou En-LaI?

Washington Needs to Get Ready for Russian Chaos Foreign Policy

* * *

Could Russia Deliver on its Threat to Cut Subsea Cables? Maritime Executive

Normalizing the Nazis:

Ukrainian Military Officials and Equipment using the “Balkenkreuz” or Iron Cross from the Imperial/Nazi Germany-Era is an extremely bad look and needs to be talked about more; I’m not sure why this is continued to be Allowed by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, there should be… pic.twitter.com/4J6sgkQZpP

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 25, 2023

UN General Assembly discusses ‘Responsibility to Protect’ Anadolu Agency

Biden Administration

FTC Sues Amazon, Claiming ‘Deceptive’ Prime Sign-Up and Cancellation Process Daring Fireball

2024

RFK Jr. and Joe Rogan: Putting the old denialist technique of bad faith “Debate me, bro!” challenges on steroids Science-Based Medicine

B-a-a-a-d Banks

Former Fed official and ex-SVB risk officer team up to launch bank FT. Seems legit.

Big US banks to fare well in annual health checks despite spring turmoil Reuters

Digital Watch

Tech Startup Targets Missile Motors as Silicon Valley Moves Into Weapons WSJ. The deck: “Anduril’s purchase of a solid rocket engine maker marks a further pivot from software to military hardware.”

Zeitgeist Watch

Animating Irony: The Force of Irony in Online and Offline Political Movements Public Culture. Hmm.

The Conspiratorial Mind: A Meta-Analytic Review of Motivational and Personological Correlates Psychological Bulletin

Decades-long bet on consciousness ends — and it’s philosopher 1, neuroscientist 0 Nature

Abusive Men Describe the Benefits of Violence Voice Mail. From 2015, still germane.

Class Warfare

Frontline Workers Are Bargaining for Pandemic ‘Hero’ Pay WSJ

SAG-AFTRA and Hollywood Studios Still at Odds Over Higher Residuals for Hit Streaming Shows Variety

Boots Riley: Winning the Writers’ Strike Is Important for Humanity GQ

Influencers are under fire for praising working conditions in Shein’s clothing factory despite abuse allegations CNBC

Workers Ingested Into Aircraft Engines Twice In A Year: What’s Gone Wrong? Simple Flying

Never mess with an arborist:

2/ guy propably thought he was going to just pay a $32k fine. But the arborist wrote violations to all 3 parties, 96 in all (by hand, took him 12 hours) and there’s a provision requiring the replanting of like trees “of the same size.” And it’s on an inaccessible by road

— Create Alliances for Better and Prepare for Worse. (@SamAsIAm) June 26, 2023

Worth reading in full; karma acting in near-real time.

Antidote du jour (via):