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Two rounds of US military strikes across the Middle East over the weekend against militant groups — the so-called “axis of resistance” — backed by Iran, are unlikely to either deter US adversaries or reassure US allies in the region. The US military response will not rally the deeply divided domestic opinion behind the White House. Nor will it dampen fears of a widening war and its impact on global commerce that relies on the vital trade route running through the Red Sea.
Although the US remains the pre-eminent external power with significant leverage in the region, the Biden Administration’s political and military dilemmas have only been accentuated with each passing day since the October 7 terror attacks against Israel. The one step that could dampen the conflict is Washington’s decisive pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire. Despite its push for a pause in the Gaza war, Washington has been unwilling to apply the necessary political pressure on Israel.
The wave of attacks by militant groups on US military presence in the region since October 7 included one at the end of January that killed three US soldiers at a US base in Jordan. President Joe Biden, in the middle of a challenging campaign for reelection, promised a decisive military response. The first round of the response on Saturday saw the US bomb 85 targets of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Force in Iraq and Syria.
A second round of attacks in the early hours of Sunday focused on the Houthis, the Yemeni group backed by Tehran, who have been attacking international shipping in the Red Sea region. The US counterattacks are unlikely to impress the hawks at home, especially in the Republican Party, who accuse Biden of being weak, indecisive, and unwilling to confront the source of the challenge in Iran. The doves in the Democratic Party are angry that Biden is leading the US into a wider war in the Middle East, notwithstanding the claims of the Biden administration to the contrary.
A ceasefire in Gaza and a fresh diplomatic effort to address the concerns of the Palestinian people could go a long way in deterring Iran and its proxies that have built support by pointing to Israel’s brutal record against Palestine. To be sure, the Biden Administration is trying to broker a long pause in the Gaza military operations and facilitate the release of Israeli hostages and Hamas prisoners that could set the stage for a renewed peace process that would recognise the long-standing aspirations for a credible Palestinian state. But resistance from Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, continues to stymie US peace efforts. Using military force against the “axis of resistance” without disciplining Netanyahu will be an American exercise in futility.
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