Ben Stallworthy: Ukraine’s tough winter!

Ukraine’s winter is getting colder, its international supporters struggling to put aside internal politics and face the threat Russia’s invasion poses to international stability.  In the US, Congress is still debating an aid package for Ukraine.  A debate that demonstrates the insularity and limited world view of the American heartland. The US became a super power because it used its economic strength to support democracy’s fight for survival against authoritarianism during World War Two.  It became the ‘arsenal of democracy,’ Congress’s recent deliberations are a sad reflection on this history. 

Russia’s invasion poses a threat to both the US, and the world. If Putin is successful using force to take what he wants, his success empowers other authoritarian rulers to use military power trampling over international law.  The implications of this situation effect everybody, everywhere but even faced with this threat, America’s politicians are locked in ‘horse trading’ about funding border control in exchange for supporting Ukraine.   The US has the capacity to support Ukraine, but rather being a debate of political philosophy, policy or strategy; domestic politicking is holding up US aid for Ukraine. A sad situation and Volodymyr Zelensky must be suffering terribly as he tries to maintain his statesmanship listening to the debate. 

Meanwhile in Europe, after failing to meet several commitments the next round of future aid is being debated.  Hungary’s leader Viktor Orban blocked the European Union’s (EU) latest 55 billion Euro aid package to Ukraine.  Hungary’s action is unlikely to stop an aid package but will slow down financial support for Ukraine and creates uncertainty.  The situation both in the US and in the EU may prove Putin’s assessment that liberal democracies are weak correct; and confirm to him that the best strategy is to keep fighting because Ukraine’s supporters will lose interest.  An assessment that will prolong the war and create more suffering. 

Ukraine’s strategic dilemma

Ukraine is caught in a dilemma, stuck trying to demonstrate it is not losing the war and is worth investing money to support. A difficult task without guaranteed support, for example it is foolish for Ukraine to risk a large commitment to crossing the Dnipro River until it is sure its losses can be replaced. A situation that’s inactivity could be interpreted by some as Ukraine being unable to keep fighting.  So, the nation needs to delicately balance its message and get the support it needs without putting itself at risk; or creating the idea that it is losing.  Volodymyr Zelensky’s statesmanship will be sorely tested over the next few weeks.  

It should be noted that Ukraine has made significant progress in the war to date:

The initial Russian invasion was stopped. 
Approximately half the territory captured by Russia has been retaken. 
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been driven out of the western Black Sea and Ukraine is now able to start exporting grain.
Ukraine has inflicted enormous attrition on Russia destroying thousands of tanks, armoured vehicles, trucks and artillery systems.  US intelligence reports Russia has suffered approximately 315,000 casualties, nearly 90% of its army’s strength at the time of the invasion.  Although these soldiers have been replaced by annual drafts, mobilisations and covert recruitment (i.e. from prisons and internationally) it is still a staggering number of people killed or injured.  Recent US estimates put Ukraine’s casualties at 170-190,000.  
Ukraine has demonstrated it can launch carefully planned drone and sabotage attacks on Russian factories and infra-structure deep behind the frontline. 

Essentially, the 2023 offensive may not have produced the results Ukraine and its supporters hoped for but Ukraine is far from defeat. In fact, Ukraine is successfully defending its territory even though Russia recently switched to more aggressive offensive operations on the Svatove-Kremina Line and intensified its efforts to capture Avdiivka.  

President Zelenskyy’s dilemma is that defence alone may not be enough to guarantee support, if Ukraine had inflicted a major defeat on Russia; or conversely if they were losing badly, it may have galvanised international support. Instead, Ukraine is stuck in a grey zone, neither winning or losing on the battlefield limiting media coverage. Russia on the other hand is winning the information battle, by making the war appear boring and unwinnable they aim to reduce Ukraine’s international support.  And; this week it looks like they may be successful!   

Russia projects confidence 

While President Zelenskyy is dealing with difficult problems, Putin is projecting confidence.  We cannot be sure that his confidence is well-founded but it is certainly the expedient course of action.  After a break last year, he returned to hosting his annual Christmas press conference. An event that Associated Press described as follows: “Emboldened by battlefield gains and flagging Western support for Ukraine, a relaxed and confident President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday there would be no peace until Russia achieves its goals, which he says remain unchanged after nearly two years of fighting.” Putin’s four-hour discussion allowed him to re-state his objectives, Ukrainian surrender and the defeat of NATO.  

Putin knows that the more confident he looks the more likely he is to scare off Ukraine’s international supporters, concerned that they will be drawn into a long war ending in defeat.  Additionally, the military blogosphere is full of speculation about Russia’s next step.  Anders Puck Nielsen (https://www.youtube.com/@anderspuck) an erudite You Tuber who provides consistently clear, well-thought-out commentary opined last week that Russia now has the initiative, and has started a new winter offensive.  Further, Nielsen who speaks Russian and studies the country’s politics and military, believes that Russia does not appear to be planning to negotiate for a peace settlement based on current borders. Instead, he believes that Russia remains committed to its original objectives.  Nielsen’s assessment on 10 December is consistent with Putin’s statements at his press conference on 14 December.

Other commentators have stated similar opinions, and late last week German newspaper BILD published an article citing un-named sources in Russia. The article outlined plans for the next phase of the war, describing Russian plans to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. Further, it states that Russia has plans to capture more of Zaporizhia and perhaps even Kharkiv over the next 36 months. The article claims that these operational plans are based on larger mobilisations, being willing to accept losing approximately 100,000 casualties per annum and leveraging off the uncertainties of the US presidential election. 

BILD also reported that intelligence sources believe Russia is likely to use sham negotiations. A tactic that has been used successfully in the past, specifically during the negotiation of the Second Minsk Agreement in 2015.  Russian forces continued to occupy Ukrainian settlements during the negotiations. Although BILD’s information is not confirmed the newspaper does have a history of successful predictions. 

Russia appears confident and is projecting to the world that it has the capability to maintain offensive pressure.  Exactly the picture that Putin wants to project, he wants the world to think that Russia has defeated Ukraine’s offensive, that Ukraine’s combat power is exhausted and that Russia is ready to transition back to the attack.  Therefore, supporting Ukraine is ‘backing a loser,’ that if you are an international supporter, it is better to cut your losses and force Ukraine to negotiate. 

 Is Russia’s confidence warranted? 

Ukraine’s position is a product of uncertainty produced by its wavering supporters.  Ukraine is still managing to hold the frontline against Russia’s increased tempo of attacks and has maintained its foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro River.  Based on open-source intelligence and on Russia’s increasing use of human-wave tactics it seems fair to say that Russia has lost much more equipment and manpower than Ukraine. Not enough to be defeated, but enough that it will take years to replace.

Ukraine is not active because it is in a transitional phase, defending and preserving its combat power while the uncertainties of international support play out.  My assessment is that neither side can currently force a decision, Russia does not appear to have the equipment (i.e. tanks, armoured vehicles and trucks) for large scale manoeuvre. If Russia goes on the offensive, it is likely to be conducted as we are seeing in Avdiivka.  Slowly, using human waves support by minimal armour and artillery. Putin’s confidence is not based on defeating Ukraine quickly but on the knowledge that if Ukraine does not receive US and NATO support, he can eventually use his manpower advantage to swamp his opposition.  And; in the meantime, he is engaging in maskirovka or strategic deception by projecting confidence if Russia’s ability to prosecute the war. 

Summary 

Russia’s 2022 invasion is a turning point in history, since World War Two the world has slowly become more inter-connected and a rules-based order based on international law interpreted through the United Nations has evolved.  It is not always perfect, but unilateral aggression by powerful nations against smaller nations has generally decreased. This order has been based on American largesse from funding the United Nations and NATO to serving as the economic and military ‘muscle’ enforcing international law, the US has played a key role in global stability. It is nearly 80 years since the world last collapsed into global war and until recently the prospect of this happening again looked unlikely.  However, Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine challenged this trend and if he succeeds, it is likely to make the world a much less stable place.  

Ukraine matters to the world and needs to be supported; it is not a lost cause.  Instead, it is the frontline in the battle between regression to authoritarian, ‘might is right’ political philosophies and a more progressive world order based on international law.  Letting authoritarianism win is a loss for every nation so let’s hope that in the US and EU internal politics can be put aside and support for Ukraine confirmed soon. 

Ben Morgan is a bored Gen Xer and TDBs military blogger