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Hello and welcome to the working week.
The UK might not be the economic powerhouse it once was, but it is leading the world in one thing over the next seven days: data output. The detail of this, however, is likely to show how far the British economy has fallen behind its peers recently.
This week will bring a first stab at third-quarter gross domestic product (days after the Bank of England warned that growth would be “well below historical averages” over the medium term), house price data from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (likely to add to recent gloom) and purchasing managers’ index data on the ailing construction market.
Then there is the politics. The King’s Speech (the parliamentary process, not the film) on Tuesday sets out its legislative agenda for the crucial period in the run-up to the general election, expected some time next year. Crime and energy will be at the heart of the announcement, the first delivered by King Charles as monarch and the first for Rishi Sunak since he became prime minister.
The US working week begins with Donald Trump taking to the witness stand in a New York courtroom in the civil fraud case against his family. Judge Arthur Engoron has already found that the former president and his adult sons, Donald Jr and Eric, inflated their wealth by as much as $2.2bn in order to secure loans for their family business on advantageous terms and other benefits. This trial is to determine whether the Trumps pay upwards of $250mn in penalties and face other sanctions in the lawsuit brought by the New York attorney-general. The defendants have all denied liability, so expect some tense exchanges. Background reading here.
On the subject of world leaders, Australia’s prime minister Anthony Albanese is in China and will on Monday meet both President Xi Jinping and premier Li Qiang illustrating a remarkable recovery in relations following recent tensions between the two nations over trade and security.
Chinese officials will update the country’s inflation figures. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Monetary Policy Committee will set rates — economists expect a 25 basis points rise to 4.35 per cent, bucking the trend among leading developed nations to stick this month.
Earnings season maintains its momentum with a rush of results over the next seven days. Japan’s SoftBank is expected to report a robust quarter following the blockbuster listing of its UK-based chip designer Arm. Investors will be seeking clues on the next big deal by SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son now he is flush with the gains from the Arm initial public offering.
Chief executive Bob Iger is nearing the first anniversary of his return as head of the media behemoth Disney and investors want to know what he plans next when the company reports fourth-quarter figures on Wednesday amid “cord cutting” by customers in the traditional television business and an expected slowdown in theme park revenues.
Finally, a couple of FT Live events worth noting this week. The Global Boardroom, where top FT journalists meet leaders in government and business, including the president of the European Central Bank, the president of the Czech Republic, the chief economist of the World Bank Group, and the chief executives of Novartis, Nasdaq and many more, runs from Wednesday to Friday. Click here to register for free.
Also, on Wednesday and Thursday, join leaders from across the wealth management ecosystem at PWM and FT Live’s Global Wealth Management Summit to discuss shifting investment strategies, regulation and business models, for a wealth industry in flux. Register here.
Thank you to David Hindley for filling in for me last week, and for those of you who wrote to wish me well in my second career — tutoring my children ahead of mock GCSE and A-level exams.
What is the most important item in your calendar this week? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.
One more thing . . .
Musician Joni Mitchell turns 80 on Tuesday. As someone who felt the loss when she pulled her songs from Spotify, it’s time to enjoy her latest album, reviewed here by the FT’s Ludovic Hunter-Tilney.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
The Bank of England hosts an online Q&A with its chief economist Huw Pill on the cost of living and current economic conditions
EU, France, Germany, Japan: S&P Global October services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data
UK: S&P Global/Cips October construction PMI data
Results: BioNTech Q3, Itochu H1, Ryanair H1
Tuesday
Australia: central bank rate-setting meeting
China: October trade balance figures
Germany: monthly industrial production figures
UK: British Retail Consortium-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor
Results: Associated British Foods FY, Beazley Q3, Capgemini Q3 revenues, CNH Industrial Q3, Direct Line Q3 trading update, eBay Q3, Enel Q3, Goodyear Q3, Hilton Food Q3, IWG Q3, KKR Q3, Mazda Motor Corp Q2, Metro Bank Q3, Nintendo H1, NTT H1, Persimmon trading update, RS Group H1, Securitas Q3, Singapore Airlines Q2, Uber Q3, UBS Q3, Unisys Q3, Yamaha Motor Company Q3
Wednesday
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, European Central Bank governing council member Gabriel Makhlouf, Aviva chief executive Amanda Blanc, Bank of Ireland chief executive Myles O’Grady and Bank of Italy deputy governor Alessandra Perrazzelli are all due to speak at an Irish central bank conference
EU: eurozone retail sales figures
Germany: final October consumer price index (CPI) and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data
Results: ABN Amro Q3, Adidas Q3, Ahold Delhaize Q3, Airbus Q3, AMC Entertainment Q3, Bayer Q3, Bertelsmann Q3, Commerzbank Q3, Continental Q3, Crédit Agricole Q3, Deutsche Post Q3, Eneos Holdings Q2, Eon Q3, Hiscox Q3 trading statement, ITV Q3 trading update, Lyft Q3, Marks and Spencer H1, MGM Resorts International Q3, Munich Re Q3, Pandora Q3, Ralph Lauren Q2, Smiths News FY, Take-Two Interactive Software Q2, Vestas Q3, Walt Disney Company Q4, JD Wetherspoon Q1, Virgin Galactic Holdings Q3
Thursday
China: November CPI and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data
EU: European Central Bank Economic Bulletin
UK: Rics House Price Balance
Results: 3i Group H1, ArcelorMittal FY, AstraZeneca Q3, Auto Trader H1, B&M European Value Retail H1, Flutter Entertainment Q3, Leonardo Q3, National Grid H1, News Corp Q1, Pirelli Q3, SoftBank Q2, Sony Group Q2, Tate & Lyle H1, Taylor Wimpey trading update, Telefónica Q3 and capital markets day, Veolia Q3, WHSmith FY, Wincanton H1, Wizz Air H1, Wood Group Q3 trading update
Friday
EU: Ecofin meetings
UK: preliminary Q3 GDP figures
US: University of Michigan November consumer sentiment report
Results: Allianz Q3, Bridgestone Q3, Redrow trading statement and AGM
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
China: President Xi Jinping and premier Li Chiang to meet Australian prime minister at the end of the latter’s three-day state visit to the country
US: former president Donald Trump is due to testify in the civil fraud trial in which he and his family businesses are accused of manipulating asset values
Tuesday
Japan: foreign minister Yoko Kamikawa hosts her G7 counterparts in Tokyo
UK: King’s Speech, setting out the Westminster government’s legislative agenda for the next year, at the state opening of parliament
Wednesday
Thursday
Germany: 85th anniversary of the pogrom against the country’s Jewish population, known as Reichskristallnacht or the Night of Broken Glass. President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will give a speech in Berlin
Friday
UK: New lord mayor of the City of London, Michael Mainelli, takes office at The Silent Ceremony at Guildhall, becoming the 695th incumbent. He hosts a parade through the streets of the capital on Saturday
Saturday
Sunday
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