Russia risks degraded troops amid lack of combat-ready reserves: ISW

Russia is risking troops “degradation” amid the war in Ukraine due to a lack of “combat-ready” reservists, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

A report published on Thursday by the U.S.-based think tank cited pro-Russian military bloggers who said that Russia’s army was lacking defensive capabilities in southern Ukraine due to an inability to “rotate” troops in and out of combat. ISW suggested that the shortcoming would impact Moscow’s ability to defend against the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, said in a tweet earlier this week that the Ukrainian counteroffensive—focused on Russian-occupied regions in southern and eastern Ukraine—had “been particularly fruitful” in recent days, maintaining that progress was being made “calmly, wisely, step by step.”

The ISW report suggests that it may become more difficult for Moscow to halt the counteroffensive the longer it continues. The report notes a military blogger’s claim that Russian troops mobilized in the southeastern Ukraine region of Zaporizhzhia had “been on the frontlines since October 2022 without any rotations,” due to “no available personnel to replace them.”

“Russian forces likely lack combat-ready reserves,” ISW said. “The failure to conduct any rotations will likely result in a quicker rate of degradation for Russian formations defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives in southern Ukraine.”

The ISW report went on to cite claims that the Russian military may be launching attacks on Ukrainian military equipment that had already been destroyed “to report inflated Ukrainian losses.”

ISW said that “the Kremlin has previously used reports of wildly inflated Ukrainian armored vehicle losses to portray Russian defensive operations as extremely effective.”

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian Ministry of Defense via email for comment.

New data published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy on Thursday revealed that the Ukrainian stock of tanks had surpassed Russia’s supply for the first time, despite Russia having had a pre-war tally of around double Ukraine’s tank stocks.

While accurate figures are very difficult to verify, Kyiv claimed that Russia had lost a total of 4,000 tanks by mid-June. Sir Tony Radakin, head of the British Armed Forces, said on Tuesday that “Russia has lost nearly half the combat effectiveness of its army.”

There have been some indications that Ukraine could be on the verge of making even more significant advances over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces, who are still recovering from the recent attempted mutiny by Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said in a Telegram post on Wednesday that progress was being made near the embattled eastern city of Bakhmut, which Russia captured in May alongside Wagner Group forces.

Retired U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Robert Murrett, the deputy director of Syracuse University’s Institute for Security Policy and Law, told Newsweek that it was “just a matter of time until Ukrainian forces overrun Bakhmut, as reflected in advances already made by their forces in key areas surrounding the city.”