Who are the runners and riders to succeed Leo Varadkar after bombshell announcement?

Despite the bombshell nature of Varadkar’s announcement and the genuine shock it has been to the entire political system, not least Fine Gael itself, the speculation about who succeeds him is already well underway in Leinster House.

One name is pre-eminent – that of Higher Education Minister Simon Harris, who one Fine Gael TD claimed “came out of the womb wanting to be leader of a political party and taoiseach of Ireland”.

Harris is the clear, odds-on favourite of the bookies and the only name mentioned by a handful of Fine Gael figures who spoke in the immediate aftermath of Varadkar’s announcement.

“He’s his own favourite as well,” observed an ally of one of Harris’s potential rivals on Wednesday.

It is no secret that Harris has assiduously courted the favour of the parliamentary party, Fine Gael members and the wider public in recent years.

His public popularity soared as he navigated the first difficult and uncertain months of the Covid-19 crisis four years ago when he was health minister – a job that had caused him no end of political difficulties prior to the outbreak of a global pandemic.

Since the summer of 2020 he has been in the relative political backwater of the Department of Higher Education, doling out good news like increased student grants, pledges of more student accommodation and extra college places.

He stood in as justice minister for six months when Helen McEntee, another possible leadership contender, was on maternity leave last year and acquitted himself competently, maintaining a typically high-media profile throughout.

All through this time he has been keen to avoid the perception of overtly plotting against Varadkar, despite it being the view of nearly all of his parliamentary party colleagues that he has been doing just that.

Indeed, there has been a nervousness in his camp at any media coverage that might portray him as disloyal to the leader.

But last week, with nearly all ministers away on St Patrick’s Day duties – and before he made his own brief trip to London – Harris is known to have met with at least one disgruntled Fine Gael backbencher to hear of their concerns about the party’s direction.

Harris could not have known at that stage that Varadkar would return from the US and announce his resignation.

But it does contribute to the inescapable sense that he has been putting the building blocks in place for whenever a vacancy arose.

That time has come and the view among some objective observers in Leinster House is that he may ascend to the throne without a contest, particularly if he secures the backing of the likes of Paschal Donohoe.

Donohoe, the Public Expenditure Minister, has previously ruled himself out of any future leadership contest. But his future looks uncertain after he missed out on the job of IMF managing director last week.

He may believe the top job in Fine Gael has now come at the right time.

Another obvious contender is Simon Coveney, who lost out to Varadkar seven years ago but secured the backing of the wider party membership.

Rumours – repeatedly denied by his allies – have been circulating for months that Coveney is considering stepping down from the Dáil at the next election. But could this unexpected vacancy prompt a second leadership bid?

McEntee was once considered a close rival of Harris’s and has made no secret of her ambitions for higher office. But many colleagues believe she has been damaged by a tricky spell in the justice portfolio.

There is a belief among Fine Gael politicians and grassroots, rightly or wrongly, that she has been too focused on so-called “woke” issues and not enough on law and order – the blueshirts’ bread and butter.

Then there is Social Protection and Rural Affairs Minister Heather Humphreys, who has spent the last few years doling out millions of euro in grants to voluntary organisations across the country. This is something which has made her wildly popular in some of Fine Gael’s heartlands.

She may be more of a mind to run for the Áras in 2025, though one backbencher expressed the view she would make an ideal interim leader for the local and European elections and possibly the general election. A full leadership contest could then take place after those elections, they said.

Among the junior ministerial ranks there are two names that crop up: the Financial Services Minister Jennifer Carroll MacNeill, who has made no secret of her ambitions is highly rated within the party, and EU Affairs Minister Peter Burke, who is well-liked across the party, particularly in rural Ireland.

Allies of both were happy to let their names percolate as being among the runners and riders as Fine Gael grappled with Varadkar’s shock news on Wednesday afternoon.