Iowa caucuses 2024: Live updates on results, weather and voter turnout

Ron DeSantis did everything right in Iowa. The Florida governor has checked all the boxes that Republicans must complete if they are to stand a chance in Hawkeye State.

He completed the “Full Grassley,” named for Iowa’s long-serving Republican Senator Chuck Grassley, where he visited all 99 counties in the state. He made the hard sell at Iowa’s State Fair. He received the endorsement of Kim Reynolds, the state’s governor, and Bob Vander Plaats, the head of the Iowa Family Leader and a kingmaker.

Mr DeSantis has staked everything on Iowa, a state that should have been a perfect match for him.

But just four days before the first-in-the-nation contest, former President Donald Trump is still blocking out the sun in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average in the state. At 52.3 per cent, Mr Trump remains far ahead of Mr DeSantis, who has now even lost the second spot to Ms Haley, who is at 17.7 per cent to Mr DeSantis’s 16.2 per cent.

Mr Vander Plaats tells The Independent that Mr DeSantis “needs to convince those who are supporting Nikki Haley, ‘listen, you want an alternative to Trump? I’m your guy’. And he needs to convince the Trump voters – ‘Hey, if you want all the good of Trump, but without all the drama, then I’m your guy’”.

Despite record-low temperatures, a wind chill warning and snowy conditions, the Iowa caucus will continue as planned in all 99 precincts.

A spokesperson for the Iowa Republican Party told The Washington Post that no precinct had changed its location or closed today due to the weather.

We’re not hearing that at this time,” Kush Desai told the newspaper. “If it happens, these would be one-off situations.”

Mr Desai said that it is not usual for precincts to change under certain circumstances.

Ahead of the Iowa caucus on Monday, final polling from The Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom showed Florida Governor Ron DeSantis lost the support of Iowans over the last month.

When asked in December 2023 if Mr DeSantis would be their first choice, 19 per cent of respondents said he was.

But when asked in January 2024 if Mr DeSantis was their first choice, 16 per cent of respondents said he was.

The drop is small but indicates that Mr DeSantis is losing momentum with primary voters – typically the most politically active members of communities.

Instead, Nikki Haley has gained momentum having jumped from 16 per cent in December 2023 to 20 per cent in January 2024.

An already intense winter storm, made worse by frigid wind chills is expected to make parts of Iowa feel in the -20s°F or -30s°F.

The National Weather Service issued a wind chill warning for parts of Iowa as the caucus goes underway and reminded people that frostbite can occur in just minutes of exposure to the harsh conditions.

Former president Donald Trump instructed a climate protester to “go home to mommy” after the activist interrupted an Iowa rally, accusing him of taking millions from oil and gas executives as president.

“Trump, you’ve taken millions!” a demonstrator yelled on 14 January in the middle of Mr Trump’s speech, held one day before the Iowa caucuses.

The former president snapped, “Thank you, darling. Thank you.”

A smile emerged on the Republican candidate’s face as the crowd booed at the protester. Mr Trump then snapped, “Go home to mommy. Your mommy’s waiting.”

Iowans are preparing for the coldest state caucus on record, with several inches of snow and arctic temperatures across the state on Monday.

The caucus is a much-anticipated event considered the beginning of the presidential election season. The Iowa Republican caucuses will determine how many of the state’s 40 Republican National Convention delegates each candidate will get.

Nearly all of Iowa is under a wind chill warning through caucus day into Tuesday, with some regions reaching as low as –35F (-37C). The National Weather Service said the temperatures are “life-threatening” and capable of causing frostbite in just ten minutes.

The coldest wind chills are expected to hit Monday through Tuesday morning, just when Iowa residents will be travelling to their caucus locations throughout the evening.

Meteorologists are forecasting light snow later in the week, far less than last week when Iowans saw more than a foot in some regions.

Meanwhile, the state saw several inches of snow, high winds and dangerous travel conditions as residents prepared for the caucuses last week.

Weather-related car crashes were reported throughout last week. The Iowa State Patrol posted on X to warn against travel, sharing images of a patrol car struck from behind on Interstate 80 with several inches of snow on the ground.

The Iowa caucus is the first-in-the-nation primary to occur which means its results will indicate how voters are thinking bout the Republican candidates.

So far, in national polls, former president Donald Trump has a massive lead over the other candidates.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Mr Trump is polling at around 60 per cent – with an over 50-margin lead over the other candidates.

Trailing behind Mr Trump is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at approximately 12 per cent and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley with roughly 11.7 per cent.

Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is polling at around 4.3 per cent and former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson has less than 1 per cent support nationally.

A political caucus is defined as any gathering of people with a shared interest or goal.

The Iowa caucuses are a series of local meetings held throughout the state at which participants conduct party business and typically indicate their preference for the presidential nominee their party will place on November’s ballots.

It’s also the first step in a months-long process to select people to serve as delegates to the national party conventions in the summer.

Here’s everything else you need to know about the Iowa caucus before tonight.

Hours before the first-in-the-nation caucus, 2024 Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is feeling confident.

In Urbandale, Iowa, Mr Ramaswamy told The Independent’s John Bowden, “I’m feeling great, we’re going to shock the world tonight and prove the media wrong.”