2024 polls: Trump’s lead over Nikki Haley narrows in New Hampshire

Right now, take President Joe Biden’s low numbers among Black and Hispanic voters with a grain of salt.

Currently, most people don’t believe the 2024 contest will be a rematch between Joe Biden versus Donald Trump.

But one area where Biden has to worry is the enthusiasm gap.

As I explained last month, In 2020, Mr Biden created a heterogeneous coalition of moderates, Black voters, independents, young voters, college-educated city dwellers, suburbanites and progressives that supported Sens Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in the primaries.

That coalition was always going to be fragile because inevitably, one set of actions that pleased one part of his coalition would anger another group. His signing of climate legislation would inevitably frustrate some people who worry about high gas prices.

His unequivocal support for Israel after the October 7 massacre by Hamas has infuriated younger voters of colour who see Israel’s assault on Gaza as unconscionable. But the glaring red light for Mr Biden is the enthusiasm gap.

Mr Trump’s supporters have shown to be incredibly enthusiastic and any legal action taken against him has only galvanised support for him.

The USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll showed that 44 per cent of Trump supporters labelled themselves as a “10” on a scale measuring their enthusiasm.

By contrast, only 18 per cent of Mr Biden’s supporters list themselves the same way.

An enthusiasm gap could be fatal as many people who broke for Mr Biden might not be enthused about voting for an 81-year-old Democrat when they saw supporting him as a one-time act to stop Mr Trump.

Ms Haley’s supporters hope that New Hampshire, which votes days after she will theoretically have just pulled off an upset in Iowa, will be the arena in which she bests Mr Trump for real. That expected victory, they presume, will catapult Ms Haley into the realm of true competition for the nomination itself, as Republican voters in other states (they hope) will give Ms Haley a second look — and take seriously her claim to represent the GOP’s best chance at beating Joe Biden.

After New Hampshire, it’s on to Nevada and South Carolina — where Ms Haley served as governor, and where she has her next best shot at overcoming Mr Trump’s lead.

Most of this remains theoretical, at least until Monday. With caucus-day fast approaching, the former ambassador and governor has shifted her focus to a last-minute push in Iowa. Her campaign has also come clearly under the gaze of Mr Trump, who has refocused his own campaign on disparaging the newly-surging Haley.

In the DeSantis camp, things have reportedly been gloomy for months. Now, the beleaguered Floridian faces the prospect of a third-place finish in the state where he invested more time and political capital than did his opponents, even picking up a crucial endorsement from the governor. He remains the only candidate to have visited all of Iowa’s 99 counties, too — making his possible downfall next week all the more crushing should it occur.

One potential wrench in the machinery remains — the lower-performing GOP candidates, Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie. While Mr Christie is barely a factor in Iowa, Mr Ramaswamy polled at 9 per cent in the Morning Consult survey; not high enough to matter, but enough caucusgoers to cause real shifts in the dynamic of a second or third round of caucusing, as the losers are eliminated.

As the candidates enter the last stretch of what may very well be Iowa’s last first-in-the-nation caucus, the question remains for Ms Haley: is this the moment she makes it a two-person race? Or does the Trump alternative head into New Hampshire weighed down by rivals and see her own ambitions snuffed out by mathematical realities?

With caucus-day fast approaching, the former ambassador and governor has shifted her focus to a last-minute push in Iowa. Her campaign has also come clearly under the gaze of Mr Trump, who has refocused his own campaign on disparaging the newly-surging Haley.

In the DeSantis camp, things have reportedly been gloomy for months. Now, the beleaguered Floridian faces the prospect of a third-place finish in the state where he invested more time and political capital than did his opponents, even picking up a crucial endorsement from the governor. He remains the only candidate to have visited all of Iowa’s 99 counties, too — making his possible downfall next week all the more crushing should it occur.

One potential wrench in the machinery remains — the lower-performing GOP candidates, Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie. While Mr Christie is barely a factor in Iowa, Mr Ramaswamy polled at 9 per cent in the Morning Consult survey; not high enough to matter, but enough caucusgoers to cause real shifts in the dynamic of a second or third round of caucusing, as the losers are eliminated.

As the candidates enter the last stretch of what may very well be Iowa’s last first-in-the-nation caucus, the question remains for Ms Haley: is this the moment she makes it a two-person race? Or does the Trump alternative head into New Hampshire weighed down by rivals and see her own ambitions snuffed out by mathematical realities?

The South Carolina governor led her Florida rival in a new Morning Consult poll of the Iowa caucuses released on Tuesday, less than a week before caucusing will take place. Her lead, however, was well within the poll’s margin of error — and well behind Donald Trump, the continued frontrunner for the nomination.

Ms Haley may actually be setting herself up for a mixed victory next week, if the newest poll holds true on Monday. She could pull off a surprise win over Mr DeSantis in a state where he has bet it all, only to find herself well behind the frontrunner in the first contest — by as far as 40 points, if the survey is accurate.

Such a dynamic would put the former ambassador in an interesting situation as she charges into New Hampshire. Polling of the second contest in the GOP nominating marathon shows a much tighter race between Mr Trump and Ms Haley, though the former president could find some wind for his sails with a strong performance in Iowa.

A new poll from CNN shows former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley within single digits against former president Donald Trump in the New Hampshire primary.

The poll shows that 39 per cent of Republican primary voters prefer Mr Trump while 32 per cent support Ms Haley. The next closest competitor, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, is 20 points behind Ms Haley at 12 per cent. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy polls at 8 per cent and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis polls at 5 per cent.

Support for Ms Haley increased by 12 points since the November CNN/UNH poll.

Ms Haley has enjoyed a wellspring of support in the Granite State. The state’s governor Chris Sununu endorsed her and the influential Koch Network threw its support behind her. She benefited from a series of strong debate performances, particularly when going on the offence against Mr Ramawamy when he attacked her daughter and called her corrupt.

The survey was also conducted after Ms Haley refused to answer directly that slavery caused the Civil War between 1861 and 1865, despite the fact that she pushed to remove the Confederate battle flag from South Carolina’s state capitol grounds.

Ms Haley’s fellow Republican challengers have refused to drop out, making it more difficult for her to defeat Mr Trump.

The contest in New Hampshire comes after the 15 January Iowa caucus. Unlike the Hawkeye State, which is heavily conservative and evangelical Christian, New Hampshire voters are decidedly more moderate.

Slightly more than four in 10 likely primary voters in New Hampshire are undeclared rather than registered Republicans and one-third of likely primary voters describe themselves as moderates.

The South Carolina governor led her Florida rival in a new Morning Consult poll of the Iowa caucuses released on Tuesday, less than a week before caucusing will take place. Her lead, however, was well within the poll’s margin of error — and well behind Donald Trump, the continued frontrunner for the nomination.

Ms Haley may actually be setting herself up for a mixed victory next week, if the newest poll holds true on Monday. She could pull off a surprise win over Mr DeSantis in a state where he has bet it all, only to find herself well behind the frontrunner in the first contest — by as far as 40 points, if the survey is accurate.

Such a dynamic would put the former ambassador in an interesting situation as she charges into New Hampshire. Polling of the second contest in the GOP nominating marathon shows a much tighter race between Mr Trump and Ms Haley, though the former president could find some wind for his sails with a strong performance in Iowa.

Ms Haley’s supporters hope that New Hampshire, which votes days after she will theoretically have just pulled off an upset in Iowa, will be the arena in which she bests Mr Trump for real. That expected victory, they presume, will catapult Ms Haley into the realm of true competition for the nomination itself, as Republican voters in other states (they hope) will give Ms Haley a second look — and take seriously her claim to represent the GOP’s best chance at beating Joe Biden.

After New Hampshire, it’s on to Nevada and South Carolina — where Ms Haley served as governor, and where she has her next best shot at overcoming Mr Trump’s lead.

Most of this remains theoretical, at least until Monday.

The South Carolina governor led her Florida rival in a new Morning Consult poll of the Iowa caucuses released on Tuesday, less than a week before caucusing will take place. Her lead, however, was well within the poll’s margin of error — and well behind Donald Trump, the continued frontrunner for the nomination.

Ms Haley may actually be setting herself up for a mixed victory next week, if the newest poll holds true on Monday. She could pull off a surprise win over Mr DeSantis in a state where he has bet it all, only to find herself well behind the frontrunner in the first contest — by as far as 40 points, if the survey is accurate.

Such a dynamic would put the former ambassador in an interesting situation as she charges into New Hampshire. Polling of the second contest in the GOP nominating marathon shows a much tighter race between Mr Trump and Ms Haley, though the former president could find some wind for his sails with a strong performance in Iowa.

Ms Haley’s supporters hope that New Hampshire, which votes days after she will theoretically have just pulled off an upset in Iowa, will be the arena in which she bests Mr Trump for real. That expected victory, they presume, will catapult Ms Haley into the realm of true competition for the nomination itself, as Republican voters in other states (they hope) will give Ms Haley a second look — and take seriously her claim to represent the GOP’s best chance at beating Joe Biden.

A new poll shows President Joe Biden losing to former president Donald Trump in 2024 as Mr Biden’s support among Black, Latino and young voters has dropped.

A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll showed that the president has failed to consolidate parts of the coalition that propelled him to the White House in 2020.

Mr Trump, who has a commanding lead in every state that holds an early nominating contest for the Republican nomination for president, beats Mr Biden in a head-to-head with 39 per cent compared to Mr Biden’s 37 per cent.

Only 63 per cent of Black voters support Mr Biden. In 2020, Black voters propelled him to victory in the South Carolina primary, which led to him winning the Democratic nomination.

In his victory speech in November, he thanked Black voters, saying “You’ve always had my back, and I’ll have yours.”

The Independent’s Eric Garcia reports:

Donald Trump: 61.2%

Nikki Haley: 11.0%

Ron DeSantis: 11.7%

Vivek Ramaswamy: 3.5%

Chris Christie: 3.4%

Asa Hutchinson: 0.6%

The former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley has tightened the gap between her and the prominent frontrunner in New Hampshire, according to a 21 December poll from American Research Group.

The poll indicated that 33 per cent of likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters support the former president while 29 per cent support Ms Haley, meaning she has closed in on him within four percentage points.

In response to the recent poll, Mr Trump took to Truth Social, blasting it as a “scam.”

He wrote, “FAKE NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL WAS RELEASED ON BIRDBRAIN. JUST ANOTHER SCAM! RATINGS CHALLENGED FOXNEWS WILL PLAY IT TO THE HILT. SUNUNU NOW ONE OF THE LEAST POPULAR GOVERNORS IN U.S. REAL POLL TO FOLLOW.”

The poll also indicated that Chris Christie has pulled ahead of Ron DeSantis in the state, boasting 13 per cent compared to the Florida Republican’s mere 6 per cent.