1.4 billion people and shrinking — China’s population problem visually explained

China’s population shrinks

China recorded its first population drop in six decades in 2022,
and in 2023, it is reported to have lost the title of “world’s
most populous country” to India. By 2050, China’s population is
expected to fall to around 1.32 billion, while India’s will have
hit 1.67 billion, according to the United Nations. Since the
1990s, China’s fertility rate (total number of children that would
be born to each woman) has fallen below the replacement level of
2.1. This means that there are not enough births to replace the
deaths in the population. A major reason for low fertility is the
legacy of China’s one-child policy. High child-rearing costs,
shifting ideologies on family and marriages, as well as the
slowing economic growth have all been blamed for the population
decline.

One-child policy

China’s one-child policy was rolled out in 1980 by Deng Xiaoping
and was strictly enforced after the population had increased to
987 million that year from around 550 million in 1949. It
restricted most couples to only a single child, and for years
authorities argued it was a key factor in supporting the country’s
economic boom.

But the policy led to sex-selective abortions or infanticide
targeting girls, because of a centuries-old social preference for
boys. According to recent census data, China has almost 35 million
more males than females.

In recent years, encouraging couples to have more children has
been high on Beijing’s agenda. In 2016, China ended its one-child
policy and allowed all couples to have two children. In 2021,
China further relaxed its family-planning policies and allowed
couples to have three children.

Raising children

A high cost of living and gruelling work hours have been cited as
reasons for young Chinese thinking twice about having any
children, let alone more than one. Chinese research found that in
2019, it cost 485,000 yuan (US$67,803) to raise a first child from
birth to 17 years old in China, which was nearly seven times the
per capita GDP that year. The expenses were even higher in China’s
big cities, with Shanghai exceeding 1 million yuan and Beijing
reaching 969,000 yuan. The two cities also had birth rates that
were lower than the national level.

China’s ageing population

China has one of the fastest ageing populations in the world, with
the proportion of people over 60 years old projected to reach 28
per cent by 2040, according to the World Health Organization. This
is expected to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy in the
coming decades, while placing pressure on China’s health and
social security system.

Chinese officials and demographers have called for a return to
traditional Chinese family values to tackle a looming demographic
crisis.

Age dependency ratio

The old-age dependency ratio is a measurement that compares the
number of people aged 65 and above with those of working age –
between 16 and 59 years old.

According to the Seventh National Chinese Population Census, the
age dependency ratio in China increased to 46.3 per cent in 2021.
It means that for every 100 people of working age, more than 46
elderly people and children had to be supported. When only looking
at elderly data, the dependency ratio was 20.8 per cent. This was
expected to exceed 50 per cent by 2050, according to a 2023 report
by Chinese economist Ren Zeping.

The UN has forecast that the total dependency ratio could exceed
75 per cent by 2055 – much higher than the estimated global
average.

China’s demographic dividend

China’s workforce continues to fall by millions each year,
chipping away at the nation’s “demographic dividend” – a term that
refers to economic growth resulting from the age structure of a
nation’s population.

China’s working-age population – those between 16 and 59 years old
– stood at 875.56 million at the end of 2022, representing 62 per
cent of the population, but this was down from 62.5 per cent a
year earlier.

Amid growing market concerns about a shift of demographic dividend
to India – now reported to be the world’s most populous country –
Chinese officials have sought to play up China’s strengthening
“talent dividend”. There are challenges due to a mismatch between
the talent being cultivated and what the market needs.

China net migration

Since 1950, China has had a net negative number of migrants,
meaning more people leave the country than arrive. According to
the World Bank, there was an estimated net out-migration of
311,380 people in 2022, up from 200,194 in 2021, and 33,640 at the
start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 when many international
borders were closed. Today’s figures are much lower than 1990-93
when over 750,000 of China’s citizens moved abroad each of those
years.